Heritage Alliance, promoting Judeo-Christian values in government since 1985.
Voter Guide

Political Secrets: Why incumbents are rarely replaced

95% of the U.S. House of Representatives, State Senators and State Representatives are determined in party primaries.

Every 10 years after the census is taken, state legislators redraw legislative boundaries to evenly apportion the population. The legislators in the political party with the majority in that state will draw boundaries so that minority party legislators will win general elections with 65 – 80% margins. By packing their opponents into specified districts they assure them victory but in a smaller number of districts. The majority party legislators then draw their own districts so they can win with 55 – 65% margins. This way they are assured of a majority of districts in their state. This also means whoever wins the party primary is almost guaranteed to win the general election. Because of this, the large majority of legislative seats are not considered competitive in the November General Elections.1

5% of voters is often sufficient to win a party primary

Most incumbents are not even challenged in their party’s primary. And when they are, typically only a small portion of voters know how crucial party primaries are so the voter turnout for a party primary can be as low as 10%.2  That means 5% + 1 is a majority!  No wonder voters often complain their only choice is the "lesser of two evils."

If we, as Christians, don’t want to completely lose our religious and economic freedoms, we must carefully evaluate the candidates and vote in our party’s primary.

 


1Even in 2010 with the demographics and population being at the end of their gerrymandered 10-year cycle and the Tea Party in full swing, there will still only be 100 (23%) of the 435 U.S. House races considered competitive according to the widely quoted Rothenberg Political Report.
http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.com/ratings/house/november-1-2010-house-ratings

2Here are statistics for the Texas 2010 primaries
Average Congressional District  Republican Primary Democratic Primary
  • 587,000 voting age population
  • 407,000 registered to vote (69%) 
  • 9 of 20 incumbents challenged
  • 57,000 average turnout
  • 29,000 votes to win =
    • 7.1% of registered voters
    • 4.9% voting age population
  • 3 of 12 incumbents challenged
  • 40,000 average turnout
  • 21,000 votes to win =
    • 5.2% of registered voters
    • 3.6% voting age population